Will there be an invasion? That is the important question for many western and NATO powers. Seven years ago, according to the BBC, Russia captured a part of Southern Ukraine while backing separatists to continue the fight in eastern Ukraine. This was shut down in 2020 when a ceasefire was called between Ukraine and the separatists. 

According to leading members of the West, the biggest concern to NATO is the Russian Forces operating on the border of Ukraine. Intelligence suggests that there are around 100,000 soldiers while Ukraine believes that there are more. It does not seem that there is any motivation for invasion by Putin. However, Putin has said he will use “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures” during a news conference with BBC. Western Intelligence from leading countries in NATO as well as Ukraine believe that a possible invasion could possibly happen in early 2022. 

Luckily, President Biden and Putin had a video conference on December 7th to lower tensions. According to the BBC, Russia’s Armed Forces Chief said that “information circulating in the media about the alleged impending Russian invasion of Ukraine is a lie.” Russia has accused Ukraine of building up its army to attack Russian-backed separatists. Ukraine responded with  “propaganda nonsense”. Nato countries have also been accused by Russia of “pumping Ukraine with weapons”. This counterclaim could be a reason for invasion. Vladimir Dzhabarov, who is number two on Russia’s Federation Council’s international affairs committee, said to the BBC, that if the rebel leaders in Ukraine asked Russia for help,  “of course, we cannot abandon our compatriots”. 

Russia has made some demands to the west and NATO. Russia wants NATO to stop expanding into Ukraine and Georgia. Russia also demands that NATO exits all military positions in Eastern Europe which means pulling out a lot of troops. These are very big demands for Russia to make and many of them will not be fulfilled.