As many have heard before, those who fail to learn from history are often doomed to repeat it – furthermore, history itself commonly occurs in cycles, with motifs of all sorts (be it political, economic, social, etc.) popping up in specific yet uncertain intervals of time. A more recent commonality would be that of the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, a pandemic that occurred in 3 waves and lasted for 2 years, very similar to the current COVID-19 pandemic.

In his 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, Ray Dalio details this cycle in an attempt to explain why times ahead may be vastly different from the past:

“Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes – but similar to those that have happened many times before”

While the accumulating development of the human race has certainly left the future rather uncertain and uncharted – as any future on such a scale is – the bigger pictures and concepts, ideas and events of the past tend to reassert themselves in the present, disguised in new ways to the new generations.

Looking to the past, Dalio noticed that over the past 500 years, there have been multiple cycles in which these orders – a form of agreement between the countries of the world, headed by the current power – have changed; in other words, when the current power of said order has been replaced by another. He divides these cycles into three phases: the Rise, the Top, and the Decline.

In recent years, there have been numerous political and economic conditions that were previously never encountered by the likes of Dalio. Incurring huge debts, the mass printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies, large political/social conflicts, and a widening gap in wealth amongst US citizens. Coupled with the rising of another world power, China, it is safe to say that it appears that there will soon be a change in the world order, with a new world power to take the US’s place. When this will occur, it is still uncertain – where cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance will play a role, if at all – also uncertain.

Nonetheless, these events encouraged Dalio to take a look into the past, and attempt to find how old events had reemerged in current times with new faces, and new countries. He reveals what drives these cycles, how the big cycle has worked across the last 500 years, and how the US can continue to remain strong as the current world power.

You can buy the book on Amazon (https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed) here, or watch the YouTube video here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8).